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The most severe potential impacts of the global heating for the UK have been mapped by scientists, encompassing a searing 4C jump in average temperatures to a 2-metre increase in sea level. An alternative projection envisions a decline of 6C in temperature following the shutdown of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt farming and energy demand.

Possible Outcomes, Not Forecasts

These impacts, a number of which are connected to climate tipping points, are considered as unlikely but plausible. The scientists said that these models addressed a shortfall in planning that had rendered the UK ill-prepared for worst-case results.

"The severe weather events we have mapped should not be seen as certainties, but they are possible," said the professor who led the study. "The nation has been planning without the frameworks to plan for worst-case scenarios. We've now supplied planners what they need to prepare for climate outcomes they pray never occur, but dare not dismiss."

A Spectrum of Extreme Weather Projections

A further series of dire projections details the possible scale of harsh climate between now and the end of the century. These indicate that temperatures could soar in some months by up to 6C above the norm, while precipitation could be triple standard measurements.

The likelihood of the worst-case outcomes coming to pass remains uncertain due to unknown factors about what steps will be taken to combat climate change and how the planet's climate will react. This analysis was likened to defence planning or resilience checks for economic stability.

Key Possibility Elements

• 4C Temperature Rise: Worldwide averages soaring past 4C by 2100 could occur if international cooperation breaks down or if vicious cycles like the Amazon basin perishing unleash its huge repository of carbon. This would cause extreme and prolonged heat domes and water shortages affecting the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A critical sea current, the AMOC, is losing strength and showing signs of collapse due to climate change. A collapse starting around 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Farming would struggle enormously and freshwater availability would be drastically changed," noted Arnell.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if ice sheets in the polar regions collapse rapidly, flooding seaside communities. Differing from the other scenarios, this risk is already understood by coastal engineers.
• Aerosol Effect: Temperatures could also be increased by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is rapidly cleaned up. This paradoxical outcome occurs because aerosol particles from fossil fuel combustion scatter solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Worst

These dire projections could be applied to guide the building of major projects, such as new towns, energy plants and flood defences. Understanding these environmental threats could also hasten the transition to slash greenhouse gas emissions.

The analysis developed the extreme models using a combination of real-world events, climate models and scientific theory. The possibilities do not take into account international cascading effects including the global food shortages and resource wars.

This work was initiated as part of a government’s risk assessment framework. Independent analyses have cautioned that insufficient focus was being paid to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

An independent advisory body has said that the UK must "become resilient to moderate heating" and examine the risks for severe warming. Previous adaptation plans have been criticised as being "very weak" by certain experts.

A government spokesperson commented: "The climate emergency is at the core of our national priorities, both adapting for the future and becoming a low-carbon economy. It is essential that the UK is resilient for the impacts."